Iran's critical mass

With the discovery in Iran of a hidden second uranium enrichment plant, in defiance of world opinion and United Nations Sanction, recent revelations from Canada may be the smoking gun that finally reveals the military purpose behind Tehran’s claims of “nuclear development for peaceful purposes only”.

George Webb, head of the Canada Border Services Agency's Counter Proliferation Section stated in interview last week that Iran has been running sophisticated nuclear procurement operations in Canada for some time, in order to surreptitiously acquire materials for its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. "Anything to do with a nuclear program is going to Iran," said Webb.

An on-going investigation by Canada’s Border Services Agency has seized not only various nuclear components such as a raid in 2008 that netted centrifuges and programmable logic controllers, [components used in nuclear reactors to implement automated systems, including emergency shutdowns] destined for Iran, but also far more significantly, this week the discovery of a shipment of microchips, claimed by Department of Defense officials as likely to be guidance chips for ballistic missiles.

These miniaturized components, smaller than a human fingernail, had been legally purchased by Canadian companies from sources in the United States, Japan and Denmark, and were due to be re-exported to the United Arab Emirates.
Canadian Customs officials, for reasons they have not yet revealed, state that they believe the ultimate destination was in fact Iran. Geoffrey Forden, research scientist at the MIT Science, Technology and Global Security Working Group, said "Iran is trying to do as much as possible indigenously but some things are either too time-consuming, or they don't have the infrastructure. [So] they'll buy pieces from outside the country with the intention of eventually making it on their own."

Peter Jones, associate professor at the University of Ottawa's Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, said Iran uses both international procurement of components on the open market and indigenous development. "The equipment they've bought abroad they are able to take apart and reverse engineer, [then] build their own components," he said. With a Ph.D. in War Studies from Kings’ College, London, and an MA in War Studies from the Royal Military College of Canada, Jones is well qualified to speak on the current Iranian situation, and wrote recently that President Obama’s policy of diplomatic engagement requires a much sharper edge if it is to prove effective in deterring Iranian nuclear ambitions. According to his analysis it appears that Russia and possibly China, who have both previously defended Iran’s right to nuclear technology, may not veto any attempt by the UN Security Council to impose further sanctions on Iran.

The discovery of a shipment of what may turn out to be missile guidance chips bound could not come at a worse time for the Iranian regime, with the united statements by Presidents Obama of the USA , Sarkozy of France and Prime Minister Brown of the United Kingdom, during the recent G20 summit in Pittsburgh, condemning the recent discovery of a second secret underground and militarily hardened Iranian uranium enrichment plant at Qom, [ironically also the spiritual home of Shia Islamic Revolution, and tomb of Ayatollah Khomeini,] and demanding that it be opened to international inspections. Iran will undoubtedly try to excuse their non-declaration on the grounds that they have not introduced any fissionable material into the plant, and therefore according to a legalistic interpretation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty are not required to declare its existence. However, as President Obama said, "The size and configuration of this facility is inconsistent with a peaceful (nuclear) program."

When one considers the deliberately provocative test-firing by Iran of its Shahab-3 and Sajjil missiles on the eve of Yom Kippur, as well as the statement by Iranian President Ahmedinejhad, that an Israeli attack on Iran would “expedite the Zionist regime’s last breath,” alongside these events both inside Iran and across the world it is hard for many experts to avoid the conclusion that Iran is most certainly hiding a covert nuclear arms program. This conclusion that much of the world wishes it could avoid is made even more inevitable by the on-off stance of Iranian saber-rattling and conciliation, as well as a lack of understanding of the precepts of Iran’s Islamic revolution, especially the messianic beliefs held by Mahmoud Ahmedinejhad and a small group of Iran’s most powerful leaders known as the Hojjateieh.

Shi’ism believes in a “hidden Mahdi”, who will return at the end of the world as humanity’s savior. While it is also expressly forbidden to force the return of the 12th Imam, the Hojjateieh sect believe that it is allowed to stir up chaos in order to encourage his return. The group was banned under the rule of Ayatollah Khomeini, for its refusal to accept his belief in Velayat-e faqih, or Islamic Jurisprudence, though the ban was rescinded after his death. Ahmadinejad has denied membership in the group, though Iran watchers have consistently noted key phrases in his speeches that would align his beliefs with those of the Hojjateiehs. If this is the case, and it seems eminently possible, it would suggest that Iran’s intentions in developing a nuclear weapons program are not merely to enlarge its regional sphere of influence, but rather so long as this current President remains on the Peacock throne of Persia, a means to satisfy an apocalyptic religious fanaticism through his intention to use them.

It is for reasons like this that one hopes the current negotiations in Geneva will see unanimity across the world in recognition of the common threat posed to all by a nuclear armed Iran, and thereby a clear resolution to pass tough sanctions that will isolate Iran from all worldwide trade until it accepts a degree of transparency in regard to its nuclear program that has so far not been forthcoming.

Adam Wallace follows international issues for The Cutting Edge News.