The US' plan to provide its Arab allies and Israel with military aid, announced on 31 July, is large-scale by any standards. It includes the provision of US$20 billion-worth of precision-guided bombs, aircraft upgrades, new warships and other equipment to Saudi Arabia; US$13 billion-worth of military supplies to Egypt; and smaller quantities of arms to other close allies such as Kuwait and Oman. The biggest transaction of all involves Israel, whose US$30 billion-worth of contracts over the 2007-17 period represents a 30 percent increase over the last decade.
As with most arms agreements of this magnitude - the controversial al-Yamamah deal between Britain and Saudi Arabia, currently under US investigation - is a prime example - the political as much as the commercial dimensions are significant. In this case, Washington is seeking to bolster its interests in the middle east via a delicate balancing-act: assuaging Israeli concerns over the increased sales to the country's Arab neighbors with the scale of the bilateral deal with Tel Aviv, giving itself leverage to pressurize Riyadh over Iraq, and consolidating its alliances with friendly (or subordinate) Arab states.
An additional, and somewhat neglected, aspect of the US's strategic initiative deserves attention. This is the beneficial effects the comprehensive arms-sales deal will have on four key constituencies, in America itself and around the world.
Friends and rivals
The first major beneficiary is the Republican Party, as it prepares intensively for the epic presidential election of November 2008. The two aspects of the deal's largesse, commercial and political, are clearly linked.
The domestic arms industry is the most evident commercial beneficiary, but the security of the very lucrative contracts the deal represents will better be guaranteed if the White House remains under Republican control. Moreover, the favored candidate will clearly need to maintain unstinting support for Israel while protecting and cultivating the Republicans' relationship with the Saudis.
The changing political nature of pro-Israel sentiment in the US is a relevant consideration here (see Anatol Lieven, "Israel and the American antithesis," 19 October 2004). The George W Bush administration is dependent less on the American Jewish community (which numbers approximately 6 million) than on the tens of millions of American evangelical Christians (many with Christian Zionist sympathies) who believe that Israel is a core part of God's plan as the "end days" approach (see "Christian Zionists and neocons: a heavenly marriage," 3 February 2005). The reconfiguring of the domestic politics of US support for Israel is greatly influenced by the tendency of this large group to vote both Republican and more assiduously than other citizens.
The second beneficiary is Russia. At present Russia's relations with Iran are in a trough over the fuelling of the Bushehr nuclear reactor, and in this sense the US project - aimed so obviously at circumscribing Iran's regional power - comes at a perfect time for Moscow. Indeed, it is reported that Iran has moved rapidly to respond to Washington's move by starting negotiations on a major purchase from a major Russian arms manufacturer, Sukhoi.
If the reports are confirmed - Russia has described them as a "pure lie"- Tehran may acquire as many as 250 advanced Su-30 fighter-bomber aircrafts. The Su-30 is a long-range aircraft with potential for anti-ship warfare, especially when equipped with some of the new cruise missiles. The Iranian air force could equip up to 12 squadrons in a US$1 billion deal that would also involve the delivery of some tanker aircraft for aerial refueling. The combination would transform Tehran's aerial capabilities, which are now confined by dependence mainly on 1960s- and 1970s-vintage aircraft.
The Russians, too, would be very happy with this outcome. They are beginning to r
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